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Diggs to Houston

steelbtexan said:
I'm a pass the ball to open up the run type guy.

With this said if they're playing with a lead and the defense is a top 10 defense, I expect Stroud's passing yds to stay about the same or possibly go down. Winning should be the goal not padding stats like Moon's Oilers used to do.
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Yes sir...or Watson for that matter. He put up huge numbers in 2019 and it didn't mean squat. They had no running game and a bad defense and they were playing from behind a lot so he was slinging it all over the field. It looked pretty, but that's not how you win games. Numbers and stats don't win games!
 
Let's break this down. Last season the Texans averaged 62 offensive snaps per game, about middle of the pack. Dallas was near the top and averaged 67.

Of these 62 offensive snaps, the Texans passed the ball 47% of the time. So they ran the ball 53% of the time.

Now Stroud, for the season, had a completion percentage of 64%..

So let's imagine the Texans average 66 snaps per game. Now I don't imagine the run/pass percentages will change much, but just for the fun of it, let's round it off to 50/50. That's 33 passing attemps per game.

And now let's guess Stroud ups his game a bit and his passing percentage goes up to 66%. Not unreasonable. So that averages out to be about 22 completions per game.

So now we have the pure speculation how those 22 completions will be distributed among Collins, Dell, Diggs, Schultz and Mixon. As a starting point, that's 4+ each per game, or 68 for the season.

Last season Collins was targeted 22% of the time. Schultz was his second favorite target with 18%. In his shortened season, Dell was targeted a total of 15%. Woods also was targeted 15%. Brown 11% and Metchie 6%. The RBs were targeted 14% of the time. Now we have to remember these are targets, not completions.

A lot of mumbo jumbo statistics. But I think we can conclude that Stroud will continue to spread the ball around, without a clear favorite.
 
Porky said:
Did someone say pie or stroudel? Chef Nick is whipping up a nice sweet tater pie this offseason!

But here's the deal. If your QB is recording the sorts of numbers that badboy is talking about, that's not indicative of a super bowl team and here's why.

You pass to score, and you run to win. The idea is to get a lead, and then pound the rock in the second half and especially in the 4th quarter. Mixon and company will be fed several slices of the pie too...moreso when they build leads. This is how you win games. If your QB is chunking it 40+ times every single game...you're probably stinking the joint up. You've got to sling it to catch up. Instead you want to play from in front. And those 40 attempts aren't completions....so let's call it 30 completions. You've got a 3 headed beast at WR, a couple of good pass-catching TEs, and capable RBs in there as well, which spreads the love around.

You're not going to get the kind of numbers individually at WR it takes to make All-Pro. All-Pro comes down to numbers. Now impact? You bet! I'm all about these guys having major impacts and bringing the juice this year. But an all-pro guy has to be a #1 undisputed ball hog at WR. Which of the 3 is going to be the true #1 ball hog and put up all-pro numbers? Remember that all-pro is the very best of the best. I bet if you asked 100 people who will have the best numbers at WR this year, you'd get less than 40 votes for any one player. It's not adding up for me, especially on a team expected to compete for something tangible this year. And that's no pie!
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Quoted for truth

You have to be like Derrick forcing the ball to Hopkins for a WR to make a pro bowl. The only WR's to make a pro bowl in a Shanny offense were AJ and Julio Jones and checkout who were the WR2's on those teams. Stroud has weapons all over this offense which is what I was hoping would happen after the offense scored 3 points in a playoff game. That wont happen in a playoff games this yr. An underrated add to the offense is Stover, he and Fisher are better run blockers than what was out there last yr. There's going to be much more 12 personnel used this yr because of this, which should keep down some of the WR's numbers.
 
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I do love me some pie! What's y'all favorite pie? I can't lie about pie! Is it berries of blue? Oh, how cool! Is it a perfect peach treat, or must it be something sweet? Put that on repeat.

There's no such thing as bad pie. Only a bad pie chef. We won't talk about that - it's only a waste of breath.
 
Porky said:
Let me explain it this way. You like pie. Who doesn’t?

Your a freaking hog, but also generous. You slice the pie in half and give the other half to your friend. You both fall into a diabetic stupor and pass away happy…oh wait your revived!

You decide that’s too much pie at one sitting, so you add a 3rd friend. He is a pie eating champion from back east. But to be fair, all 3 friends decide to slice the pie into 3 slices. Each one has plenty of pie, without gorging themselves. But the original two friends, don’t get as much pie.

Then another friend comes along and says hey guys…maybe y’all should cut down on the pie eating. Here’s a bushel of veggies callled Mixon. Now if you want to live longer and win the game of life, you need to fill up on Mixon veggies. Much healthier.

You and your friends start eating lots of Mixon. But you all still like your pie. But from now on, you reduce the size of the pie, so as to not gorge yourselves . You slice it into 3 smaller slices, and enjoy the dessert…but decide to live more on Mixon veggies to have a more balanced diet.

Everyone lives happily after after. The end.
Click to expand...

You had me at pie.
 
Bluehen Texan said:
17 games in a season. I still think (if plays all 17) he could do it. It’s a tall order but it’s been done 15 times. Jameis Winston did it. Would love to see it.
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He missed 2 full games and ~ 8 minutes of 4th Q of Jets. My thought was 3 healthy full games would get him there. Mathematically, I should've adjusted. I do think my point was clear that Stroud could have 5,000 yards.
 
Porky said:
Let me explain it this way. You like pie. Who doesn’t?

Your a freaking hog, but also generous. You slice the pie in half and give the other half to your friend. You both fall into a diabetic stupor and pass away happy…oh wait your revived!

You decide that’s too much pie at one sitting, so you add a 3rd friend. He is a pie eating champion from back east. But to be fair, all 3 friends decide to slice the pie into 3 slices. Each one has plenty of pie, without gorging themselves. But the original two friends, don’t get as much pie.

Then another friend comes along and says hey guys…maybe y’all should cut down on the pie eating. Here’s a bushel of veggies callled Mixon. Now if you want to live longer and win the game of life, you need to fill up on Mixon veggies. Much healthier.

You and your friends start eating lots of Mixon. But you all still like your pie. But from now on, you reduce the size of the pie, so as to not gorge yourselves . You slice it into 3 smaller slices, and enjoy the dessert…but decide to live more on Mixon veggies to have a more balanced diet.

Everyone lives happily after after. The end.
Click to expand...
It is a healthy pumpkin pie with less sugar and fat plus vitamins. Also, there is an extra 1/3 pie to divide; offering more pie to each eater.
The three pie eaters are satisfied as they are still getting quite a bit of the pie yet have a greater chance of being invited back for the championship pie eating contest. As a fan watching the contest, I don't care if the eaters eat veggies or not.
 
Porky said:
Did someone say pie or stroudel? Chef Nick is whipping up a nice sweet tater pie this offseason!

But here's the deal. If your QB is recording the sorts of numbers that badboy is talking about, that's not indicative of a super bowl team and here's why.

You pass to score, and you run to win. The idea is to get a lead, and then pound the rock in the second half and especially in the 4th quarter. Mixon and company will be fed several slices of the pie too...moreso when they build leads. This is how you win games. If your QB is chunking it 40+ times every single game...you're probably stinking the joint up. You've got to sling it to catch up. Instead you want to play from in front. And those 40 attempts aren't completions....so let's call it 30 completions. You've got a 3 headed beast at WR, a couple of good pass-catching TEs, and capable RBs in there as well, which spreads the love around.

You're not going to get the kind of numbers individually at WR it takes to make All-Pro. All-Pro comes down to numbers. Now impact? You bet! I'm all about these guys having major impacts and bringing the juice this year. But an all-pro guy has to be a #1 undisputed ball hog at WR. Which of the 3 is going to be the true #1 ball hog and put up all-pro numbers? Remember that all-pro is the very best of the best. I bet if you asked 100 people who will have the best numbers at WR this year, you'd get less than 40 votes for any one player. It's not adding up for me, especially on a team expected to compete for something tangible this year. And that's no pie!
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30 completions.
Dell 2023 avg 15.1
Diggs 11.1
Nico 16.2
Total 424 per game. That's doable.
Has to get the lead an impound The Rock to hold on to a win hopefully is your way and probably the way of many if not most NFL teams. It does not have to be that way for houston. I don't want running backs and tied ends to be considered catchers but rather safety nets to protect Stroud. What we saw from CJ and with hopefully an improved offensive line, I think my perspective could be the correct one.
 
steelbtexan said:
I'm a pass the ball to open up the run type guy.

With this said if they're playing with a lead and the defense is a top 10 defense, I expect Stroud's passing yds to stay about the same or possibly go down. Winning should be the goal not padding stats like Moon's Oilers used to do.
Click to expand...
Of the 10 season Moon played for houston, seven times he took them to the playoffs. Then with the Vikings he went to the playoffs one season. I think Stroud is a different type of passer but can be just as prolific.
 
badboy said:
30 completions.
Dell 2023 avg 15.1
Diggs 11.1
Nico 16.2
Total 424 per game. That's doable.
Has to get the lead an impound The Rock to hold on to a win hopefully is your way and probably the way of many if not most NFL teams. It does not have to be that way for houston. I don't want running backs and tied ends to be considered catchers but rather safety nets to protect Stroud. What we saw from CJ and with hopefully an improved offensive line, I think my perspective could be the correct one.
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I disagree. Not with a Ryans team. 30 completions? That translates into approximately 45 targets, which translates into a pass/ rush ratio of approximately 70/30. And it's plain loco to say the TE and RBs will not be targeted in the pass game. Take them into account and now your pass/ rush ratio jumps to something more like 80/20 or 90/10. It will never happen with a Ryans team. I think some college teams may approach this. But has any NFL team ever gone so pass happy over the course of an intire season?
 
badboy said:
Of the 10 season Moon played for houston, seven times he took them to the playoffs. Then with the Vikings he went to the playoffs one season. I think Stroud is a different type of passer but can be just as prolific.
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Hopefully he doesn't need to be as prolific or put up the empty numbers Moon put up.
 
Number19 said:
I disagree. Not with a Ryans team. 30 completions? That translates into approximately 45 targets, which translates into a pass/ rush ratio of approximately 70/30. And it's plain loco to say the TE and RBs will not be targeted in the pass game. Take them into account and now your pass/ rush ratio jumps to something more like 80/20 or 90/10. It will never happen with a Ryans team. I think some college teams may approach this. But has any NFL team ever gone so pass happy over the course of an intire season?
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Game 1 was 42 attempts
Game 2 was 47
Game 9 was 42
So your thought is wrong. Ryans team did go there.

Nico had 4 games with 5 or less targets. You think that will happen again with Slowik and Stroud knowing now what Collins can do?
Dell had 4 games with 4 or less targets.

Mixon last season in 17 games avg less than one target a game for 7 yd per catch. I think that's about right for this year.

15 carries per game is about twice what I want. 4 yard avg could likely increase .
 
steelbtexan said:
Hopefully he doesn't need to be as prolific or put up the empty numbers Moon put up.
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Of course I agree with you, but we do not have an Earl Campbell type running back on this roster. With what we have including a extremely successful, High accuracy quarterback with at least three very good wide receivers, why would we want to run the ball for 4 yards per attempt? I am not saying we should eliminate the running back or tight end. I am saying that they should be a rare hopefully safety net to pick up a first down or a touchdown.
Davis at QB , I would be pushing the running back and tight end positions.
 
badboy said:
Game 1 was 42 attempts
Game 2 was 47
Game 9 was 42
So your thought is wrong. Ryans team did go there.

Nico had 4 games with 5 or less targets. You think that will happen again with Slowik and Stroud knowing now what Collins can do?
Dell had 4 games with 4 or less targets.

Mixon last season in 17 games avg less than one target a game for 7 yd per catch. I think that's about right for this year.

15 carries per game is about twice what I want. 4 yard avg could likely increase .
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You're taking single game statistics and projecting those for the complete season.

Last year, the team which had the highest per game average offensive plays, had 69 offensive plays per game average. The Texans had an average of 62.

Last year, for the season, the Texans pass to run ratio was 47/53.

Last year, for the season, Stroud completed 64% of his passes.

Last season, Collins was targeted 22% of the attempts, Dell 15%, Woods 15%, Brown 11%, Metchie 6%, Schultz 18% and the RBs 14%.

This is Ryans'/Slowik's/Stroud's offense, last year. I'm projecting that this will not change dramatically in 2024.

I think I get it, though. In your last sentence you were implying what you would do. OK, I guess I can accept that you are fantasizing.
 
Number19 said:
You're taking single game statistics and projecting those for the complete season.

Last year, the team which had the highest per game average offensive plays, had 69 offensive plays per game average. The Texans had an average of 62.

Last year, for the season, the Texans pass to run ratio was 47/53.

Last year, for the season, Stroud completed 64% of his passes.

Last season, Collins was targeted 22% of the attempts, Dell 15%, Woods 15%, Brown 11%, Metchie 6%, Schultz 18% and the RBs 14%.

This is Ryans'/Slowik's/Stroud's offense, last year. I'm projecting that this will not change dramatically in 2024.

I think I get it, though. In your last sentence you were implying what you would do. OK, I guess I can accept that you are fantasizing.
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I like my "fantasy " over your do the same thing; rinse and repeat.
2 developing super star receivers plus a a 2 x all pro in Diggs and you want more snaps for the just above average Mixon and Schultz.

We could've drafted a WR to train behind Nico and Tank..
Yet Nick and Demeco went big shocking all to bring in a WR who is expected to be WR 1.
 
The more drop backs, the higher chance of an injury, a turnover, etc. I think Stroud will certainly get plenty of opportunities, but not at the expense of the run game or balance. Play action is a big part of the offense. You’ve got to set that up to be successful.

Late in games, if they are winning, Mixon will get fed…like it or not. The coaches don’t give a damn about stats or awards. They want to win games, and that’s their sole focus.
 
badboy said:
I like my "fantasy " over your do the same thing; rinse and repeat.
2 developing super star receivers plus a a 2 x all pro in Diggs and you want more snaps for the just above average Mixon and Schultz.

We could've drafted a WR to train behind Nico and Tank..
Yet Nick and Demeco went big shocking all to bring in a WR who is expected to be WR 1.
Click to expand...
You have one thing wrong - I don't want anything. I'm simply projecting what our offense will look like based on last year. I don't think Ryans is going to change that. If you think he is going to open up with a more aggressive passing game, well, we'll see.
 
The offense will be run by Slowik again. Which most likely means we'll only be getting an altered version of what we did last year. Which is what should work.
 
Diving deeper, last year Diggs had 175 targets with 117 receptions for a completion percentage of 66.9%. I don't think he'll come even close to that many targets with the Texans.

It's clear why Collins was thrown to the most - his 72% completion percentage was reliability. He had 126 targets with 91 completions.

Schultz was #2 with a completion percentage of 69.9% , 65/93.

Dell was 47/74 for 63.5% and Metchie was 19/33 for 57.6%
 
Number19 said:
You have one thing wrong - I don't want anything. I'm simply projecting what our offense will look like based on last year. I don't think Ryans is going to change that. If you think he is going to open up with a more aggressive passing game, well, we'll see.
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I think that is where we disagree in that our team will be the same as last year offense wise. I want to see about a 70/30 split of receiving to running.
 
steelbtexan said:
Quoted for truth

You have to be like Derrick forcing the ball to Hopkins for a WR to make a pro bowl. The only WR's to make a pro bowl in a Shanny offense were AJ and Julio Jones and checkout who were the WR2's on those teams. Stroud has weapons all over this offense which is what I was hoping would happen after the offense scored 3 points in a playoff game. That wont happen in a playoff games this yr. An underrated add to the offense is Stover, he and Fisher are better run blockers than what was out there last yr. There's going to be much more 12 personnel used this yr because of this, which should keep down some of the WR's numbers.
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That's false. Every qb have a go to wr. I guess Montana and Young were forcing to Rice? The x is the x for a reason in whatever version of the WCO. Not only that, we don't know if Fisher can run block in the pros nor Stover. As a te, you just have to be willing to block and use your strength especially vs a olb or safety. Shannon Sharpe was a h-back, he wasn't a dominant blocker, but he blocked well enough to not be a liability.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk
 
Number19 said:
Diving deeper, last year Diggs had 175 targets with 117 receptions for a completion percentage of 66.9%. I don't think he'll come even close to that many targets with the Texans.

It's clear why Collins was thrown to the most - his 72% completion percentage was reliability. He had 126 targets with 91 completions.

Schultz was #2 with a completion percentage of 69.9% , 65/93.

Dell was 47/74 for 63.5% and Metchie was 19/33 for
Click to expand...
Brain tired but using your stats:
70% avg for Diggs, Nico, Dell and Schultz. Could be slightly better this season.
Stroud 499 attempts in 2023.

~500 pass attempts; that's what he did in 15 games or 33.33 attempts. We know he did this.

17 games x 33.33= 567 attempts.
500 attempts for his best 4 receivers Collins, Diggs, Dell and Schultz. Divide it any way you choose.
The other 67 to the other backups: RB; TEs and WRs.
It can be done and that was without the 70 -30 ratio I hope for.
 
badboy said:
Brain tired but using your stats:
70% avg for Diggs, Nico, Dell and Schultz. Could be slightly better this season.
Stroud 499 attempts in 2023.

~500 pass attempts; that's what he did in 15 games or 33.33 attempts. We know he did this.

17 games x 33.33= 567 attempts.
500 attempts for his best 4 receivers Collins, Diggs, Dell and Schultz. Divide it any way you choose.
The other 67 to the other backups: RB; TEs and WRs.
It can be done and that was without the 70 -30 ratio I hope for.
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The 500 attempts last season was for 17 games, including the two playoff games.

I forget what it was you said was doable, but scrolling up, I think it was 30 completions per game.

Now, up above, I think you're saying 33 attempts per game. This doesn't calculate.

But what it all boils down to is that you'd like to see the Texans open up the offense to become a pass first offense, like you said, 70/30. And I don't think Ryans will do this. I believe he'll stick with an offense that is 50/50.

It might be interesting to see the pass/run ratio of the top passing team last season, maybe the past couple of seasons.
 
Number19 said:
The 500 attempts last season was for 17 games, including the two playoff games.

I forget what it was you said was doable, but scrolling up, I think it was 30 completions per game.

Now, up above, I think you're saying 33 attempts per game. This doesn't calculate.

But what it all boils down to is that you'd like to see the Texans open up the offense to become a pass first offense, like you said, 70/30. And I don't think Ryans will do this. I believe he'll stick with an offense that is 50/50.

It might be interesting to see the pass/run ratio of the top passing team last season, maybe the past couple of seasons.
Click to expand...

The highest single season pass/run ratio was the 2021 Buccs with 730 passes to 373 runs for 66.1% passing.

This is the absolute most pass-to-run in the history of the game, with the GOAT QB, and still a good ways from 70%.

Unless we're trailing a lot, 70% is a pipedream.. a really odd pipedream.
 
leebigeztx said:
That's false. Every qb have a go to wr. I guess Montana and Young were forcing to Rice? The x is the x for a reason in whatever version of the WCO. Not only that, we don't know if Fisher can run block in the pros nor Stover. As a te, you just have to be willing to block and use your strength especially vs a olb or safety. Shannon Sharpe was a h-back, he wasn't a dominant blocker, but he blocked well enough to not be a liability.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk
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Montana threw a lot to John Taylor, Brent Jones and the RBs. In fact the way Stroud plays reminds me of a young Montana. If he can stay on track then the skies the limit. They both spread the ball around and run as a last resort.


As far as the TE position goes, Schultz played the part of Sharpe. I think you're gonna really like what Stover brings to the table.
 
badboy said:
Could Texans have two All Pro WRs this season? I do not recall that ever being done before. For all I know, there could be a rule against both being on the same team. I am sure that it would have a lot to do what other wide receivers on the other 31 teams do in 2024.
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If you’re talking 1st team All Pro, no, it probably hasn’t been done, and for sure not in the 21st century.

The Bills had Diggs make 1st team and Beasley make 2nd team in the same season in 2020. The Chiefs had a WR (Hill) and a TE (Kelce) both make 1st team in the same season, the Patriots did that one year as well, but that’s about it.
 
badboy said:
I think that is where we disagree in that our team will be the same as last year offense wise. I want to see about a 70/30 split of receiving to running.
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Never going to happen brother. If this team is even close to that ratio, it means they are getting their asses kicked on a routine basis and we might win a game or two at most.
 
badboy said:
I think that is where we disagree in that our team will be the same as last year offense wise. I want to see about a 70/30 split of receiving to running.
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First of all, no, I don't want my stud franchise QB exposed that much. Secondly, 65/35 has only been done once (2018 Steelers). So asking for 70/30 is not a realistic ask. Hell, 65/35 isn't really realistic.
 
steelbtexan said:
Montana threw a lot to John Taylor, Brent Jones and the RBs. In fact the way Stroud plays reminds me of a young Montana. If he can stay on track then the skies the limit. They both spread the ball around and run as a last resort.


As far as the TE position goes, Schultz played the part of Sharpe. I think you're gonna really like what Stover brings to the table.
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Define alot? In regards to Schultz, I'm not the one who think the modern TE needs to be mark Bavarro. Nobody has ever said, did you see that block by Kelce? Nah, Kelce bakes guys in the passing game. Sharpe baked guys in the passing game too, but he was a good blocker. Look at all those thousand yard rushers and even 2k by lewis. You don't achieve that if your TE can't block.
 
Number19 said:
The 500 attempts last season was for 17 games, including the two playoff games.

I forget what it was you said was doable, but scrolling up, I think it was 30 completions per game.

Now, up above, I think you're saying 33 attempts per game. This doesn't calculate.

But what it all boils down to is that you'd like to see the Texans open up the offense to become a pass first offense, like you said, 70/30. And I don't think Ryans will do this. I believe he'll stick with an offense that is 50/50.

It might be interesting to see the pass/run ratio of the top passing team last season, maybe the past couple of seasons.
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Wrong. 499 was regular season per ESPN.
www.espn.com

C.J. Stroud 2023 Stats per Game - NFL - ESPN

The 2023 NFL season stats per game for C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans on ESPN. Includes full stats, per opponent, for regular and postseason.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
N
Porky said:
Never going to happen brother. If this team is even close to that ratio, it means they are getting their asses kicked on a routine basis and we might win a game or two at most.
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Never going to trade AJ Johnson.
Never going to trade Watt.
Never going to get Cal out of way.
Never going to spend $ for FA



😅
 
leebigeztx said:
Define alot? In regards to Schultz, I'm not the one who think the modern TE needs to be mark Bavarro. Nobody has ever said, did you see that block by Kelce? Nah, Kelce bakes guys in the passing game. Sharpe baked guys in the passing game too, but he was a good blocker. Look at all those thousand yard rushers and even 2k by lewis. You don't achieve that if your TE can't block...
Click to expand...

He spread the ball around like Stroud does. He threw to the open man. Rice obviously was WR1 but that wasn't because he forced the ball to Rice, like Derrick did with Hopkins.
 
badboy said:
N

Never going to trade AJ Johnson.
Never going to trade Watt.
Never going to get Cal out of way.
Never going to spend $ for FA



😅
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Uncomfortable truth

Bob McNair had to die and Janice had to stroke out for these things to happen.
 
badboy said:
Of the 10 season Moon played for houston, seven times he took them to the playoffs. Then with the Vikings he went to the playoffs one season. I think Stroud is a different type of passer but can be just as prolific.
Click to expand...

Moon as a prolific passer is somewhere between fact and fiction. With a lot of romanticizing of what the Oilers actually were thrown in for good measure.

First, he only threw for over 4,000 yards four times in his NFL career and only twice with Houston. When he did it in 1990 he was named OPOY yet had a 9-7 record and got blown out 41-14 by the Bengals in the Wildcard game.

He only had 25+ TD's in a season once as an Oiler and three times in his career. He had more seasons with the Oilers having fewer than 20 TD's than having more than 20 TD's. And he led the league in INT's twice as an Oiler.

And while he did take the team to 7 straight playoff appearances, he was 3-7 and never got past the divisional round. Only once did the Oilers get a first-round bye.

He also missed 17 games in that seven season stretch, with the Oilers going 12-5 without him. Considering the team posted a 9-7 or 10-6 record in 5 of those 7 seasons, from a winning percentage they were better without him.

And a big F- You to Moon in general because he's being Amy Strunk's little b!tch about the H-town Blue thing.
 
badboy said:
I think that is where we disagree in that our team will be the same as last year offense wise. I want to see about a 70/30 split of receiving to running.
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There will be teams you can run the ball more effectively against and those you won't.
There will be teams you can pass on more effectively and those you won't.
So some games you may be 50/50 passing/running and those that may be 80/20 passing/running.
This is where you need to take advantage of and play to, your strengths.
As long as we can rely on our ground game to succeed on short yardage situations or to run out the clock, or to wear down their defense, I will be happy.
 
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