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Texans predictions circa 2024

AFC South Champions, Brian.

My expectations aren't as high as some. I believe the Texans improved on a strong part of their game last year with the addition of Diggs. I don't think they improved enough on defense to get to the ever-elusive AFC championship game.

Mediocre AFC South should net at least 4 wins. But the rest of the schedule looks tough. Lots of very good passing teams on that schedule. The Vikings were first in passing last year (with Cousins but the Texans have never beaten the Vikings, 0-5), the Dolphins were 2nd in passing, and we all know about KC. I'm guessing 10- or 11-wins total. More if they sweep the AFC south but there's usually going to be some interesting games within divisions.
 
Number19 said:
This is really going to be difficult for the simple reasons that that the Texans will average only about 65 offensive plays per game (last year they averaged 62) and their pass to run ratio was 47/53. Another reason is that Stroud did a very good job of spreading his passes around and not favoring any one receiver. Unless they go to a more open, pass happy offense, which I don't project, it'll be hard for the receivers to get the targets to reach these elite numbers. Maybe one. Which one?
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Last season it was necessary to spread the love because of the lack of top receivers.
The three primaries will get the bulk of the passes and the rest will get the scraps.
 
banned1976 said:
AFC South Champions, Brian.

My expectations aren't as high as some. I believe the Texans improved on a strong part of their game last year with the addition of Diggs. I don't think they improved enough on defense to get to the ever-elusive AFC championship game.

Mediocre AFC South should net at least 4 wins. But the rest of the schedule looks tough. Lots of very good passing teams on that schedule. The Vikings were first in passing last year (with Cousins but the Texans have never beaten the Vikings, 0-5), the Dolphins were 2nd in passing, and we all know about KC. I'm guessing 10- or 11-wins total. More if they sweep the AFC south but there's usually going to be some interesting games within divisions.
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They added the best edge in the NFL, a really good pass rusher from the IDL position as well as 2 other DT's. Plus3-4 new CB's in the draft, fa and drafted a S plus added another S in FA. If the LB stay healthy this can be a top 10 defense.


What more did you want them to do?
 
Lucky said:
1000 yards is slightly under 60 yards/game per 17 games. Tank was averaging over 64 yards/game last year and would have surpassed 1000 yards had he stayed healthy.
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It all boils down to targets. Diggs will likely take targets away from Collins and Dell. It's what Badboy and I have been discussing, whether Ryans will stay with an offense that is 50/50 or will he open up the game some on Stroud's arm. If he stays with the more conservative offense, then there'll be, on average, 30 to 35 targets per game, split between 5 positions. Last year Stroud was very good at spreading the ball around and completed 64% of his passes. I've seen one report that the Texans have the strongest group of receivers in the league. But this means, if Stroud spreads the ball around, it'll make for a potent pass game but one where the individual receivers just don't have the elite numbers/production.
 
Lucky said:
You'll need to buy his service, "Porky's Perfect Picks" to find that out. I believe he's running a preseason special for only $999.99.
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Lol, I haven’t been in this thread since I last posted around 4/13…but now that you mention it, PPP sounds like a great business. But $999 is way too much for my TT friends. For you guys, I’ll only charge the low low price of $499! Buy now, and I’ll give you the winning lotto numbers!
 
Number19 said:
It all boils down to targets. Diggs will likely take targets away from Collins and Dell.
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I think Collins, Diggs, and Dell all get the targets to allow 1000 yards each. IF they play 17 games. I qualified the prediction for 17 games played.
 
Lucky said:
I think Collins, Diggs, and Dell all get the targets to allow 1000 yards each. IF they play 17 games. I qualified the prediction for 17 games played.
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Too bad it'll be 8 months before we can say one way or the other. This discussion will have been forgotten.
 
Some of the questions/key points for me that will make or break next season

Offense

1. Can we run the ball. Running game last year is in my opinion the biggest reason we lost in Baltimore last year. Can our oline stay reasonably healthy and can they figure out how to run block will be a huge factor in our success

2. CJ Stroud regression, this would of course be the biggest wrench in our plans. I don’t see any reason to expect it to happen but it will be something I worry about the rest of the offseason. If he doesn’t regress then I see no reason this can’t be a top 5 passing offense, in fact with all these weapons it would kinda be a disappointment if they weren’t.

Defense (I have more questions here)

1. Are we okay at DT? I don’t feel great about this spot. Autry can play inside but it’s not his natural position at least recently. The other guy who’s name escapes me was disappointing with the Jags so I’m worried there.

2. Will (Will) Anderson have a sophomore leap? I think the answer is yes, he turned it on late last year which is a great sign in a rookie. Him and Hunter could be an elite edge rush duo and help dispel some of my worries in our secondary

3. We have no depth at LB. Harris seems to be developing into a good player and Al-Shair is a proven solid vet so I feel alright about them. But behind them we have nothing. If there’s one place to trust DeMeco I guess it’s LB’s but still worrisome.

4. Can Stingley stay healthy? If Stingley can stay healthy I feel okay about our secondary. If he goes down (history tells us he will) then I start to get real nervous about our corners
 
Khelar said:
4. Can Stingley stay healthy? If Stingley can stay healthy I feel okay about our secondary. If he goes down (history tells us he will) then I start to get real nervous about our corners
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You're right on the o-line. I've never seem them completely in sync. But I don't know if anything works without Stingley. The QBs that the Texans will face in the playoffs (Mahomes, Burrow, Allen) will eat the Texans secondary alive without Sting.
 
I think the offense will be as good, if not better than last year. I'm concerned about the defensive secondary though. Hopefully DeMeco pulls a rabbit from his hat or something.
 
Number19 said:
It all boils down to targets. Diggs will likely take targets away from Collins and Dell. It's what Badboy and I have been discussing, whether Ryans will stay with an offense that is 50/50 or will he open up the game some on Stroud's arm. If he stays with the more conservative offense, then there'll be, on average, 30 to 35 targets per game, split between 5 positions. Last year Stroud was very good at spreading the ball around and completed 64% of his passes. I've seen one report that the Texans have the strongest group of receivers in the league. But this means, if Stroud spreads the ball around, it'll make for a potent pass game but one where the individual receivers just don't have the elite numbers/production.
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Total yards is not the only metric as you know - it just receives the most attention.
To me, yards per completion is the best indicator of production - plus TDs of course.
 
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